Talent On Display Sunday Morning

By Scott Bush

Late last month at the Berlin Marathon, Dennis Kimetto took down the men’s marathon world record, becoming the first man to dip under the 2:03 barrier with his 2:02:57 victory. Kimetto, last year’s Chicago Marathon winner and current course record holder, drove the pace hard in Berlin, clearly focused on the world record. While none of Sunday’s top competitors have made claim of a world record assault, the possibility is there. Lets break it down in a Yes/No debate.

YES

Last month, Kenenisa Bekele made claim that he was after Kimetto’s 2:03:45 course record. At the time, that mark was a mere 22 seconds off the world record, so when Bekele ended his statement with “everything is possible,” that left the door open for a possible world record run. Things have clearly changed since 2:03:45 is now a more substantial 48 seconds from the world record, but if Bekele is in 2:03 shape, you can be he’ll keep focused on the course record with the world record as goal 1A.

Bekele cruised to 2:05:04 course record victory in Paris, where he won by 1:45 in the sixth fastest debut in history. For a guy who’s spent his entire life running in circles, his transition to the marathon distance was seamless. He never backed down. Such easy makes you think he can certainly run in the 2:03’s, which means if he’s feeling on, the world record should be scared.

Eliud Kipchoge, Tadese Tola, Bernard Koech and Sammy Kitwara give Bekele a strong field to really challenge a fast time. Kipchoge owns the fastest personal best with his runner-up finish to Wilson Kipsang at the 2013 Berlin Marathon, where Kipsang set the world record. He ran 2:05:00 in Rotterdam this past April and Kipchoge and Bekele have the same agent, so don’t be surprised if there is a little teamwork going on Sunday.

Koech is maybe the most overlooked athlete in the field. He actually debuted in the marathon in 2:04:53 (Dubai ’13), making him the fifth fastest debutant ever. He’s run sub-60 for the half marathon four times and finished runner-up to Kipchoge in Rotterdam. He’s got the wheels to run very well on the flat Chicago course.

Tola and Kitwara bring their own strengths, too. Tola has run both sub-2:05 and sub-60 for the marathon and half marathon. He finished second in Tokyo this spring behind Dickson Chumba, who should be a key player in Sunday’s race. Chumba’s run sub-2:06 twice now, both times winning, so it begs the question as to how much faster he can go. Throw in Kitwara, who owns a half marathon best of 58:48 and finished third in Chicago last year and you can see this field is made to do something special.

The weather is expected to be in the upper 40s at the start of the race and should warm up to lower 50s by the finish, with a very mild breeze and overcast skies – near perfection for a marathon.

Then the course, labeled one of the very fastest in the world, has seen two world records set on it, with the latest being Khalid Khannouchi’s 2:05:42 in 1999.

With perfect weather, a ridiculously talented field with a few athletes who can clearly run faster and a very fast course seems like the perfect storm for a sub-2:03 winner. 

NO

Lets keep this short. Kimetto ran 2:03:45 in Chicago last year, claiming he had more in the tank and didn’t know he was 22 seconds away from the world record. That time is 20 seconds faster than Kipchoge’s best time, the fastest in the field. Kimetto had the perfect pacing, perfect weather and Berlin has the claim of being the world’s fastest course. Those stats alone make the case of the record being safe on Sunday.

The Berlin Marathon has hosted the past six men’s marathon world record performances dating back to 2003. It seems as though it’s impossible to break a world record anywhere else, as conditions are near perfection every single year and there’s a mindset that if racing in Berlin, big personal bests are possible. Chicago used to hold the “fastest marathon” crown, but that is no longer the case.

It’s fun to think that the world record might fall twice in a matter of two weeks, but the last time the world record was broken twice in the same season was 1964 – 50 years ago. To have it happen again seems unlikely. We’ll know soon enough if history is made in Chicago, but for now we can only speculate and debate both sides of the story.